No Way Home No Way Home Box Office Predictions & Discussion Thread

[spiderman2]

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like a 500 million OW with out the second biggest market in china? oh my. Do we know release date for china yet?

 

[Doctor Jones]

Yeah, this will make at least $200 OW.

 

[Negrotigre]

Yeah, this will make at least $200 OW.

I'm predicting $185M Opening Weekend/ $515M Domestic Total/ $1.2B Global total

 

[HammerDown]

Critically it seemingly has hit the MCU sweet spot which should also help the film spread its wings in the box office as well. The target is that 1B mark.

 

[Holy Slapper]

like a 500 million OW with out the second biggest market in china? oh my. Do we know release date for china yet?

I think China's done with Marvel films and many foreign films in general for a while.

 

[JOE]

Is this the first movie with a shot at 1B since COVID-19?

 

[Superhero 101]

Yeah I thought No time to Die would but Spidey could get the 1 bil

 

[Iceman]

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Wow. Didn't know if these kinds of domestic numbers could be on the table during COVID times.

 

[Ninjablade]

Nuts

 

[Filmfan93]

These are insane OW projections, especially during a pandemic.

In normal times, i think this could've had a legitimate chance of matching Endgame's OW box office.

 

[Iceman]

These are insane OW projections, especially during a pandemic.

In normal times, i think this could've had a legitimate chance of matching Endgame's OW box office.

I think Infinity War at least. Endgame was probably on a different level of crazy to anything.

 

[mclay18]

Sony especially is low-balling the domestic o.w. numbers at $120M.

I remember seeing Variety's o.w. projections for Black Panther was $110M for the 4-day President's Day holiday in January 2018. And I thought that was ridiculously low.

$200M opening is the absolute floor for this movie. Anything higher is gravy for Sony and Marvel.

 

[spiderman2]

Sony especially is low-balling the domestic o.w. numbers at $120M.

I remember seeing Variety's o.w. projections for Black Panther was $110M for the 4-day President's Day holiday in January 2018. And I thought that was ridiculously low.

$200M opening is the absolute floor for this movie. Anything higher is gravy for Sony and Marvel.

lol 120 I had not heard anything even close to that low and yeah if its at 100 just of presales no way is it not doing more than just 20 million of not presales.

 

[Mysteryman]

120 million?
Cute Sony, Real Cute.

 

[InCali]

I saw Sony predict 130M; which is what all the studios do so they can say it surpassed expectations. I never listen to the studios. That being said, I think the pre-sales are very, very deceptive. There's a pent up demand and a lot of people want to see this movie and that, I believe, is responsible for the massive early sales. I still think we're looking at between 160-180 (that low end is probably way too low and I lean towards the high side). I hope it does hit 200M. It would be great for the movie business. I just think it is heavily loaded for early sales and comparisons to other, pre-pandemic, movies won't hold.

We'll know soon enough and in a few days, people may get to say "nah, nah InCali. You don't know what you're talking about".

 

[TheFuture]

I have no idea about numbers but here's my story about today.

I've gone to the cinema in the covid era a few times and I've been in empty theatres. So I turn up today thinking I don't need to book online it will be fine. Wrong....not only was the showing I was going to sold out, but every screening for the day was sold out.

So I had to make a dash to another cinema while frantically booking a ticket online which I got just about.

I've no idea if that could be sustained but that is surely promising.

 

[Iceman]

I have no idea about numbers but here's my story about today.

I've gone to the cinema in the covid era a few times and I've been in empty theatres. So I turn up today thinking I don't need to book online it will be fine. Wrong....not only was the showing I was going to sold out, but every screening for the day was sold out.

So I had to make a dash to another cinema while frantically booking a ticket online which I got just about.

I've no idea if that could be sustained but that is surely promising.

My cinema has tons of showings every few minutes but since the pandemic I haven’t seen so many that are nearly fully booked. It’s massively different to any film since EG.

 

[InCali]

I have no idea about numbers but here's my story about today.

I've gone to the cinema in the covid era a few times and I've been in empty theatres. So I turn up today thinking I don't need to book online it will be fine. Wrong....not only was the showing I was going to sold out, but every screening for the day was sold out.

So I had to make a dash to another cinema while frantically booking a ticket online which I got just about.

I've no idea if that could be sustained but that is surely promising.

I check that sort of thing out when I make predictions. When EG, TFA, RoS, and other blockbusters come out, I look at what seats are available online. In those I mentioned, the entire weekend was basically sold out. With this movie, the early weekend shows are basically booked, but it falls off later in the weekend. I realize this is somewhat anecdotal and this could be exacerbated by the fact that you can't even get into a theater in Los Angeles unless you are fully vaccinated, but, so far, it's been a pretty good indicator of OW BO numbers. Of course in the current environment, it may not be a very good predictor.

 

[spiderman2]

First numbers I have seen from any country.
‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ Sets Pandemic Box Office Record In Korea – Deadline

 

[ironman_rick]

Looks like we don't need china to hit a billion.

 

[Dragon_316ca]

 

[Green Goblin]

In the UK this had the most pre-ordered tickets of any movie ever.

 

[Iceman]

This is going to smash all other pandemic films.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[Silver Surfer]

Bean counters at BOT are saying that it is coming in around 50m in Thursday previews, good for 3rd all-time, behind Endgame and TFA.