2012 Presidential Election (87 days and counting...)

[Matt]

Now that we have our challenger, this thread is your go to thread for discussion of all things 2012 presidential election.

Enjoy!

 

[enterthemadness]

I vote NOTA. None of the above.

 

[Marvolo]

I vote mulligan.

 

[Super Kal]

I vote NOTA. None of the above.

same here

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think Obama should be considered a slight favorite at this point, but the election is going to be close. Romney definitely has a shot.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I honestly don't think Romney will win against Obama unless he dominates Obama in political debates, though Obama's approval rating is around the same as Bush's at this point before his election against Kerry.

 

[SV Fan]

I honestly don't think Romney will win against Obama unless he dominates Obama in political debates, though Obama's approval rating is around the same as Bush's at this point before his election against Kerry.

Only way Romney wins is if the economy tanks

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

That too. If the economy completely implodes.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

I vote NOTA. None of the above.

This isn't a poll asking who you WISH would win the Presidency. This is who you THINK will win the Presidency.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

He probably thinks Ralph Nader would win.

 

[Super Kal]

i still have hope for Ron Paul

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

He probably thinks Ralph Nader would win.

The most regrettable vote of my life was my first one for Nader in 2000. I was idealistic and had just turned 18. Granted I was in Massachusetts, so it didn't really matter, but it was the principle of it.

 

[enterthemadness]

There is no such thing as a wasted vote. You vote for who you think should win and be President, not on who is likely to win. I voted for Obama in 08 and feel vastly terrible. Horrible President.

 

[Matt]

I actually used to agree that voting third party was a waste, but as I get older, I find my opinion changing. It is such a defeatist mentality. We need to hold both parties accountable as they are both failing. And if voting third party is the only way to do that, so be it.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The only way you'd be able to have a third party win is if they can get the media on their side and also if they have the money to compete with a democrat and a republican, but the media rejects paying any kind of attention to third party candidates.

 

[Kelly]

I'll vote after I've seen a couple of debates...and see who throws the most political ****...

 

[Schlosser85]

I think Obama will win, but Romney will probably perform decently. Better than any of the other GOP contenders would have.

I'll probably vote for Obama again. I'm a lot less enthusiastic about him than I was in 2008 (my parents voted for him too, the first votes they'd cast in decades, and my mom in particular is very disappointed by him), but I won't vote for Romney.

I'm a registered Democrat but considering becoming an Independent. But however "defeatist" this may sound, I don't see the point of voting for a third party candidate who doesn't have a snow ball's chance in Hell of being President.

 

[Matt]

Part of me is wondering, with how this electoral map is shaping up....if Obama will win the popular vote but lose the electoral. Oh man, could you imagine the social unrest if the first black president loses his second term, despite having the majority vote on what many consider to be a technicality? There will be riots.

Right now, I give Obama 4/1 odds, Romney I'd probably say is 6/1. It is closer than a lot of people want to admit and at this point, I think that the only thing protecting Obama is the fact that the economy is not as bad as it was last year, coupled with the incumbent advantage.

That being said....jobs will ultimately determine this election. Very few voters care about or understand things like the NASDAQ and Dow Jones. Those don't affect them. "economic recovery," in the market means nothing to the average voter. The job market is what matters. Is the voter unemployed? Is the voters family member or friend unemployed? That kind of stuff is the real gauge of how voters perceive the economy. Not the numbers the administration keeps pointing to as signs of recovery. Furthermore, don't let the 8 - 9 % unemployment rate fool you. A lot more people are out of work than that number implies. It doesn't account for the underemployed or those who have left the job market. Jobs will ultimately determine this election.

 

[Kelly]

It is very possible that that will happen Matt....

http://www.270towin.com/

This gives a good idea of the changes in electoral votes from 2008....

 

[Matt]

If I were to predict the 2012 election if the vote were today it would be this....

My guess for the swing states:

Obama:

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada

Romney:

Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Iowa

Ultimately makes it 272 Romney, 266 Obama.

Of course, anything can change in the next few months. But if I were to guess it today, I would call it for a narrow Electoral College victory for Romney.

 

[Kelly]

Yeah, I'm not sure that North Carolina is as big of a swing state as people think, same goes for Florida. There is a huge Jewish vote and elderly vote in Florida and they don't give a rats ass about Obama's coolness that he has been pushing here lately...and my Jewish friends are utterly pissed at Obama right now. NOW, if say in October, Israel bombs Iran and the US comes to the side of Israel, that will all be out the window....they'll go with Obama in a heart beat...its all about Israel with them.

 

[Matt]

Yep, sad to say but Iran doing something crazy toward Israel could be a God send for Obama because he will have no choice but to help Israel retaliate and it will win him the election. Because if Obama wins both PA and Florida, nothing else matters, Romney could take every other swing state (with the exception of Wisconsin, but I question how much of a swing state Wisconsin really is) and will still lose. Florida is a must win for Obama. It almost makes me think that Romney will go Jeb Bush. Of course, going with a Jewish running mate would be even bigger. Maybe Romney should consider Eric Cantor (God help us) or even Lieberman. Because Florida is HUGE.

Another interesting scenario is the possibility of Romney taking Florida, Obama taking Ohio and Romney taking Colorado and Nevada. Granted, it is a bit more unlikely, but that would give us an electoral tie at 269 each. With the way that the House and Senate are divided, we could very well see Romney/Biden as president and veep. Wouldn't that be something?

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

If I were to predict the 2012 election if the vote were today it would be this....

My guess for the swing states:

Obama:

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada

Romney:

Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Iowa

Ultimately makes it 272 Romney, 266 Obama.

Of course, anything can change in the next few months. But if I were to guess it today, I would call it for a narrow Electoral College victory for Romney.

I have the same with one exception, I have Iowa going to Obama which is enough to swing the election 272 Obama to 266 Romney. It is very possible that this election could come down to tiny New Hampshire.

 

[SV Fan]

Obama:

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada

Romney:

Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Iowa

Ultimately makes it 272 Romney, 266 Obama

I have Ohio Democrat and Nevada Republican

278 Obama 260 Romney

Obama looks like he is putting a lot of focus on the rustbelt(ie Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan) and will drag Romney through the mud there. Romney saying he wanted the automotive industry to go bankrupt will hurt him in both Michigan and Ohio.

Yeah, I'm not sure that North Carolina is as big of a swing state as people think, same goes for Florida. There is a huge Jewish vote and elderly vote in Florida and they don't give a rats ass about Obama's coolness that he has been pushing here lately...and my Jewish friends are utterly pissed at Obama right now. NOW, if say in October, Israel bombs Iran and the US comes to the side of Israel, that will all be out the window....they'll go with Obama in a heart beat...its all about Israel with them.

Any candidate that says we aren't Israel's ***** wins brownie points from me. The amount of pandering(from both sides) to AIPAC sickens me. All that being said I thought the Jewish vote is still pretty strong towards Obama and the only people who care about Israel are the religious right(who won't vote for Obama anyways) because they feel the bible tells them to worship Israel, and if they don't god will punish them(probably sending a bunch of locusts their way)

 

[Matt]

I have the same with one exception, I have Iowa going to Obama which is enough to swing the election 272 Obama to 266 Romney. It is very possible that this election could come down to tiny New Hampshire.

Iowa is a strange little state. Their governor is a Republican. Their senators are split. Their representatives are 3 Democrats, 2 Republicans. Their state legislative houses are split. 2004 it went to Bush. 2008 it went to Obama. It is really hard to call Iowa. It is not quite rust belt, but also not quite bible belt. It is somewhere in between. Makes it very hard to call. I just have a feeling it is going to go red.

In the end though, I still say that this election comes down to PA, Ohio and Florida. Whoever wins two of the three, will probably win the election.

I have Ohio Democrat and Nevada Republican

278 Obama 260 Romney

Definitely possible, but I see Ohio going red. They are such a wishy-washy state. They will jump ship at the drop of a dime. The only reasons that Sherrod Brown is going to hold his senate seat is that his opponent is weak and Brown has a tremendous on the ground operation in Ohio. But aside from Brown....I think they'll go red. Hard to say with certainty, but I tend to think that they are going red this time. If they re-elected Strickland I may be sold on them going blue....but they didn't.