DarthSkywalker
Your Most Aggro Pal (he/him)
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2004
- Messages
- 125,143
- Reaction score
- 65,715
- Points
- 203
Hope everyone got out their Ahsoka Tano figures for the release for the Ahsoka series.
Every minute of this show is feeling more like Rebels than the last. Love it.
A couple things.‘Ahsoka’ Viewership: 1.2M Households First Episode, Down From ‘Obi-Wan’ – Deadline
Viewership is on par with Andor, though obviously at a much lower budget. Down 29% from Mando S3, which isn't unreasonable. Especially, for what will considered to be a spinoff show from a corporate perspective.
Hope they can gain or retain viewers throughout the season, and they'll be fine. Already seeing certain people screaming that the sky is falling, of course.
It's not that big a drop for a second episode with a back-to-back streaming release. Hell, it's on par with House of the Dragon cross-platform, and ahead of shows like Rings of Power. It's way, way too early to attach any conclusions there. Especially, since the episode isn't even out for a full week yet. If the third episode ends around 900K, or Nielsen numbers take a huge hit, then we'll actually know how many have actually dropped off. For now, without a broader context, these numbers are not worrying IMO.A couple things.
First, I think the first episode number is fine. Not good, not bad. Fine. The second episode number is worrying. It did Secret Invasion numbers. They were released together and over 1/6th of the audience tapped out after one. At a reasonable hour no less. So that might not be good for the show going forward. Also overall numbers numbers are a bit deceiving because of when these shows were released in terms of time of day.
I was thinking more along the lines of ROI for the series as a whole. Of course, it's speculation on my side, but I don't see the average episode budget being higher than Mando S3, which was already cheaper per episode than Andor. Then again, Andor had a climb in viewership later in the season. We're not there yet with this show of course. Time will tell.Second, how do you know it has a much smaller budget then Andor? The First season of Mando is reported to have been 15m per episode, not including the work on Grogurt. Estimates have that an additional 5m. We know the budget has grown since then. Andor cost about 21m per episode. Yes it has an overall higher budget, but that's also because it's longer. There is honestly no reason to think Andor cost more then the Mando per episode at this point. Overall, Andor will have 24 episodes and I'm going to guess, that it's price will be less then Mando's for it's first 24 episodes.
Obi-Wan apparently cost 15m and it showed. So I doubt Ahsoka is significantly cheaper then Andor on an episode per episode basis.
What do you base it not being a big drop on?It's not that big a drop for a second episode with a back-to-back streaming release. Hell, it's on par with House of the Dragon cross-platform, and ahead of shows like Rings of Power. It's way, way too early to attach any conclusions there. Especially, since the episode isn't even out for a full week yet. If the third episode ends around 900K, or Nielsen numbers take a huge hit, then we'll actually know how many have actually dropped off. For now, without a broader context, these numbers are not worrying IMO.
ROI, Andor is a prestige show that did decent ratings and has grown in rep since it's release.I was thinking more along the lines of ROI for the series as a whole. Of course, it's speculation on my side, but I don't see the average episode budget being higher than Mando S3, which was already cheaper per episode than Andor. Then again, Andor had a climb in viewership later in the season. We're not there yet with this show of course. Time will tell.
ROP fell 27.7% initially for the second episode but ended up being fairly stable throughout the season. Most headlines about its decreasing viewership stemmed from flawed interpretations of Nielson numbers. I fudged those HOTD numbers a little when doing the math though. It fell only 16.3% on streaming initially, which is admittedly a mere 4% better than Ahsoka. Episode 3 was a much steeper drop though. We don't have Samba TV for that week, but 28.6% drop on HBO. Yet, in the end, that show too had a consistent viewership.What do you base it not being a big drop on?
How are you comparing it to House of the Dragon? It didn't drop both episodes on the same night. Also, what numbers are you looking at? Because everything I see for HotD shows it went up with episode 2. What were ROP's numbers?
I meant, if people aren't catching up by week 2/3, that's where it actually really worrying. Not necessarily who watches both episodes in L+5.Second, uh, what do you mean "a full week"? The comparisons are over the same amount of time. Live+5.
Andor averages 21m per episode, as you also acknowledged above. Mando and even BOBF continue to average 15m from every report I've seen. Rumor is that Skeleton Crew will end up closer to 23m though.Where do you have that Mando s3 was cheaper then Andor per-episode? I have not found that number anywhere.
Haha, yeah. I'm curious about Nielsen, but we'll have to wait a few weeks. Of course, outlets are going to report a huge drop for the second week on Nielsen regardless. As they always do when a show premieres two episodes in week one. I really wish we had something better than 'minutes' and Samba TV devices, but we have to make do.Gotta keep those shareholder's happy. While Samba's methods may not be the most accurate, they are at least independent.
Okay, you understand episode 2 of Ahsoka came out at the same time right? Any comparison with HotD in that regard is flawed. Especially with HotD having two different methods of delivery. The premiere night for episode 2 saw also saw jumps and overall HotD was watched by a lot more people. A lot. It's not even close.ROP fell 27.7% initially for the second episode but ended up being fairly stable throughout the season. Most headlines about its decreasing viewership stemmed from flawed interpretations of Nielson numbers. I fudged those HOTD numbers a little when doing the math though. It fell only 16.3% on streaming initially, which is admittedly a mere 4% better than Ahsoka. Episode 3 was a much steeper drop though. We don't have Samba TV for that week, but 28.6% drop on HBO. Yet, in the end, that show too had a consistent viewership.
Based on what? It was a two episode premiere. Ducking out halfway through it totally matters. It's not like these episodes are long either. Why do you think a lot of folks didn't just finish it? Especially if they were into it?I meant, if people aren't catching up by week 2/3, that's where it actually really worrying. Not necessarily who watches both episodes in L+5.
There is no actual number for s3. That's my point. All numbers were released before. There is no way it's cost the same either. They filmed with COVID restrictions. By that very nature, it has to be more, even if everything cost the same. Which it didn't. That's how escalators work. They've also used a lot more CGI the last two seasons. Especially season 3. That finale had a crap ton. The season had more "series regulars" as well.averages 21m per episode, as you also acknowledged above. Mando and even BOBF continue to average 15m from every report I've seen. Rumor is that Skeleton Crew will end up closer to 23m though.
Yeah, Disney's self-reporting may be... suspect, given their supposed issues with reporting their subscriber numbers.Edit: Disney+ Touts 14M Global ‘Ahsoka’ Viewers in Wake of Samba TV Reporting Domestic Downturn - Media Play News. Companies do tend to bring in those kinds of global viewership headlines when they are worried about what's being reported. Guess we'll see how it goes.
The point still being that I'm not to worried about the episode drop-off itself, at least in isolation. I just grabbed the first two examples I could think of, but it's fairly common, and even with bigger drops that doesn't necessarily tell us anything about the rest of the show yet. Need more data to be worried, even if I was obviously hoping it'd open a bit higher. As I said, the Disney article isn't a great sign though.Okay, you understand episode 2 of Ahsoka came out at the same time right? Any comparison with HotD in that regard is flawed. Especially with HotD having two different methods of delivery. The premiere night for episode 2 saw also saw jumps and overall HotD was watched by a lot more people. A lot. It's not even close.
Based on what? It was a two episode premiere. Ducking out halfway through it totally matters. It's not like these episodes are long either. Why do you think a lot of folks didn't just finish it? Especially if they were into it?
True, S3 doesn't have a full production budget, but people said the same about Mando S2 and BOBF's budgets, and those were both reported to still be around 15m per episode. It's not impossible there was an increase for S3, but overall these shows have been cheaper to make than Andor. Not the least because of the sets and outdoor locations Andor has. I'm arguing semantics at this point though, I know.There is no actual number for s3. That's my point. All numbers were released before. There is no way it's cost the same either. They filmed with COVID restrictions. By that very nature, it has to be more, even if everything cost the same. Which it didn't. That's how escalators work. They've also used a lot more CGI the last two seasons. Especially season 3. That finale had a crap ton. The season had more "series regulars" as well.
Yeah, the way they define 'views' in the article rather than focusing on the amount of viewers, ultimately isn't the best sign. Combined with shifting the focus to global numbers. It's not that I don't believe these numbers are false, but they've chosen a format that obscures a lot.Yeah, Disney's self-reporting may be... suspect, given their supposed issues with reporting their subscriber numbers.
Disney Investor Lawsuit Alleges Plan to Conceal Streaming Losses – The Hollywood Reporter