Ridin’ with Biden

Age 18-29 voters
2010: D+16 (?% of total participating voters)
2014: D+11 (14%)
2018: D+35 (13%)
2022: D+28 (12%)

House Exit Polls - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times

Election results from The New York Times.
archive.nytimes.com
www.nbcnews.com

House Elections - 2014 Midterm Elections News & Results - NBC News

Go to NBCNews.com for the latest news about the 2014 house elections.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
www.cnn.com

2018 midterms: EXIT POLLING | CNN

View CNN's 2018 election exit polls for Senate, House and governor races, including information on how different races, genders and age groups voted. For midterm election results, visit cnn.com/election.
www.cnn.com
 
MagnarTheGreat said:
Age 18-29 voters
2010: D+16 (?% of total participating voters)
2014: D+11 (14%)
2018: D+35 (13%)
2022: D+28 (12%)

House Exit Polls - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times

Election results from The New York Times.
archive.nytimes.com
www.nbcnews.com

House Elections - 2014 Midterm Elections News & Results - NBC News

Go to NBCNews.com for the latest news about the 2014 house elections.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
www.cnn.com

2018 midterms: EXIT POLLING | CNN

View CNN's 2018 election exit polls for Senate, House and governor races, including information on how different races, genders and age groups voted. For midterm election results, visit cnn.com/election.
www.cnn.com
Click to expand...

Exactly.

As stated, the resistance to Trump was always largely youth based. Thus findings like the below indicate the polls are off and oddly upside down. These changes don't just occur literally overnight.

"The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right?"

As the primary polls showed - there is definitely undercounting going on. A red mirage redux.

 
Cap2024 said:
Exactly.

As stated, the resistance to Trump was always largely youth based. Thus findings like the below indicate the polls are off and oddly upside down. These changes don't just occur literally overnight.

"The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right?"

As the primary polls showed - there is definitely undercounting going on and red mirage redux.

Click to expand...
We all have the issue here, or at least I think we do, that none of us are Gen Z. I think we're mostly millenials on here, as Gen Z would be posting on reddit, instagram, tik tok, and social media I probably have not heard of yet. So we may not be as out of touch as Biden and Trump, but we are out of touch.

But I'll do my best.

I think that the major issues for Gen Z are likely Israel/Palestine, and the catastrophically bad economy. Gen Z have no economic future. Most of them will never own a home, have a permanent career, a safe retirement, and the inflation rate that they experience is in the 10-15%/year. They will live paycheck to paycheck for their entire lives.

A large number of them will never be able to have children. It depends on the state, but daycare for newborns typically costs $30,000/year, with the federal government offering up to $6,000 in non-refundable tax credits, which will effectively be worth about $1,500 for most, so 5% of the cost.

The economic situation is genuinely catastrophic.

The system is abandoning or rather has abandoned young voters, Historically we know that this leads to radicalization.



*******

The other polling anomalies are that white men are shifting to Biden, and that people or color are shifting to Trump.
 
Last edited:
As part of my job I often meet young, first-year graduate students in STEM. Age is typically 22-24.They are still, relative to most in their peer group, privileged, as they have a future due to getting advanced degrees and usually come from upper-middle class homes. But, it's not as good a future as my group had when I was that age.

When I meet them, I let them know, among other things, that they've worked hard, that it was harder for them to get into graduate school than it was for people my age, and that their stipends don't go as far. I figure it probably helps them to know that someone older appreciates their more challenging position.

When I started graduate school, I remember I had $1200/month left after paying taxes, rent, health insurance, utilities, and pension contributions. And that went far. I could buy a lunch for $6, as in $5 footlong at Subway plus tax. It's now $6 for a 6 inch, which by the way is equivalent to 6% annual inflation in that time frame.
 
Cap2024 said:
Exactly.

As stated, the resistance to Trump was always largely youth based. Thus findings like the below indicate the polls are off and oddly upside down. These changes don't just occur literally overnight.

"The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right?"

As the primary polls showed - there is definitely undercounting going on. A red mirage redux.

Click to expand...
Yeah I think any poll that has Trump ahead/tied with Biden or Republicans ahead/tied with Democrats among youth voters is a flawed poll. Even a factor like RFK should appeal way way more to the oldest of voters who are nostalgic for John F. Kennedy and the old Kennedy days and can’t tell the difference between the two.

Democrats have been doing very well in elections over the past year and more, even ruby red areas are eroding. You’d never know it though looking at some of the opinion polls.
 
MagnarTheGreat said:
Yeah I think any poll that has Trump ahead/tied with Biden or Republicans ahead/tied with Democrats among youth voters is a flawed poll. Even a factor like RFK should appeal way way more to the oldest of voters who are nostalgic for John F. Kennedy and the old Kennedy days and can’t tell the difference between the two.

Democrats have been doing very well in elections over the past year and more, even ruby red areas are eroding. You’d never know it though looking at some of the opinion polls.
Click to expand...
I really hope that turns out to be true. Just the fact that Trump is struggling to raise funds gives me hope.
 
DA_Champion said:
We all have the issue here, or at least I think we do, that none of us are Gen Z. I think we're mostly millenials on here, as Gen Z would be posting on reddit, instagram, tik tok, and social media I probably have not heard of yet. So we may not be as out of touch as Biden and Trump, but we are out of touch.

But I'll do my best.

I think that the major issues for Gen Z are likely Israel/Palestine, and the catastrophically bad economy. Gen Z have no economic future. Most of them will never own a home, have a permanent career, a safe retirement, and the inflation rate that they experience is in the 10-15%/year. They will live paycheck to paycheck for their entire lives.

A large number of them will never be able to have children. It depends on the state, but daycare for newborns typically costs $30,000/year, with the federal government offering up to $6,000 in non-refundable tax credits, which will effectively be worth about $1,500 for most, so 5% of the cost.

The economic situation is genuinely catastrophic.

The system is abandoning or rather has abandoned young voters, Historically we know that this leads to radicalization.



*******

The other polling anomalies are that white men are shifting to Biden, and that people or color are shifting to Trump.
Click to expand...


So the youth who desire a cease fire also desire the president known for constantly talking about wanting to drop bombs on people? The one screaming that he won’t accept Gaza refugees and would subject them to an ideological test? Really?

You do know that majority of youth want a ceasefire and stand WITH Gaza, right?

Per economy - just like with Bush - Gen Z saw the economy and world falling apart under Trump and especially because of his response to Covid. Perhaps you’re a much older millennial whereas I’m significantly younger in comparison as throughout Trump’s administration I was mainly in touch with and worked beside gen z planning for and at political demonstrations. Comprising of left and far left where even Biden is thought to be right wing. Saying they’ve done a 180 is like saying cows can fly.

Thus why in terms of actual votes and turnouts the youth vote has solidly been democratic especially since 2016. That isn’t just me saying it - that is by the numbers in votes and “on the ground.”

www.salon.com

"Finish the problem": Trump shows he's "even worse" than Biden on Gaza

"Trump is a big fan of war crimes, especially against Muslims," The Intercept's James Risen writes.
www.salon.com www.salon.com
 
Last edited:
squeekness said:
I really hope that turns out to be true. Just the fact that Trump is struggling to raise funds gives me hope.
Click to expand...

Look at his numbers and Haley. Something is definitely up. In 2022, we were warned of a red wave and got a red mirage instead. Many thought to believe the polls in 2022 since they were close to accurate in 2020.

But between red mirage 2022, how the polls matched votes in the recent primary, and oddly showing Biden and Trump switching demographics (older flocking Biden, younger flocking Trump despite that not matching up with platform beliefs) - something is definitely bonkers with the recent polling method.

My best guess, 2016 surprise caused poll analysts to over correct which still hasn’t been fixed - leading to the red mirage and Trump consistently being polled eight to ten points higher than actual votes in the primary. It just lines up with how the numbers have been.

www.nytimes.com

Three Theories for Why Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations

He has underperformed the polls in each of the first three contests.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
Last edited:
DA_Champion said:
The economic situation is genuinely catastrophic.

The system is abandoning or rather has abandoned young voters, Historically we know that this leads to radicalization.
Click to expand...

I will say on this you are correct on the above.

I’m living proof of it. I graduated into a recession where many my age struggled to even get a job while everyone older than us were telling us to just pull ourselves up; while forgetting the economy used to be so much better. That definitely radicalized us and we are still seeing that foothold today.

This was the breaking point when many my age and younger turned away from capitalism and gravitated towards - socialism. The number of socialists has risen in recent years among younger generations compared to older generations including Millennials.

That radicalization? Already took place.

Trump furthered it by kicking the poor while giving his rich friends tax breaks. That put many of our fears about capitalism and especially the Republican party on display more than it was in the past.

Thus why depending on polls, gen z swings from equal socialist and capitalist to more socialist beliefs. It is from this that it is said that Biden is just another right wing crony and that “he isn’t progressive enough.”

The youth vote was never “for” Biden, rather it was against Trump and what he represents.

Did radicalization take place? Definitely. But away from Capitalism - not towards it.

www.businessinsider.com

Gen Z will change capitalism as we know it

Gen Z is torn between capitalism and socialism. We asked experts what changes the generation could push for in the years to come.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
 
Last edited:
I teach Gen Z, and I'm a Millennial in my 30s, they're voting Biden but unless a new candidate inspires the left, I can see them being disillusioned and not voting next time around.

I keep trying to tell them to vote with their morals but explain the reality of the goals of each party, and despite both of them being self-serving, one is status quo but the other is the slow descent into fascism.
 
Punisher_MAX said:
I teach Gen Z, and I'm a Millennial in my 30s, they're voting Biden but unless a new candidate inspires the left, I can see them being disillusioned and not voting next time around.

I keep trying to tell them to vote with their morals but explain the reality of the goals of each party, and despite both of them being self-serving, one is status quo but the other is the slow descent into fascism.
Click to expand...

Exactly. I see the same. Trump can’t capture youth vote, it is just ideologically at extremely polar ends. Youth vote can become apathetic though, easily leading to 2016 redux.

Many learned a lesson from 2016, but - many haven’t learned that yet. That’s the risk.
 
Cap2024 said:
I will say on this you are correct on the above.

I’m living proof of it. I graduated into a recession where many my age struggled to even get a job while everyone older than us were telling us to just pull ourselves up; while forgetting the economy used to be so much better. That definitely radicalized us and we are still seeing that foothold today.

This was the breaking point when many my age and younger turned away from capitalism and gravitated towards - socialism. The number of socialists has risen in recent years among younger generations compared to older generations including Millennials.

That radicalization? Already took place.

Trump furthered it by kicking the poor while giving his rich friends tax breaks. That put many of our fears about capitalism and especially the Republican party on display more than it was in the past.

Thus why depending on polls, gen z swings from equal socialist and capitalist to more socialist beliefs. It is from this that it is said that Biden is just another right wing crony and that “he isn’t progressive enough.”

The youth vote was never “for” Biden, rather it was against Trump and what he represents.

Did radicalization take place? Definitely. But away from Capitalism - not towards it.

www.businessinsider.com

Gen Z will change capitalism as we know it

Gen Z is torn between capitalism and socialism. We asked experts what changes the generation could push for in the years to come.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
Click to expand...

I'm 40. I grew up in a poor, working class home, but there were still enough opportunities in my day to work hard and climb a little. Someone who is like I was but 18 today is headed for a life of unemployment, homelessness, opium, childlessness, etc.

I completely agree on the polls being unreliable. I don't know what to do about it because these are interesting issues and questions and worth exploring.
 
DA_Champion said:
I'm 40. I grew up in a poor, working class home, but there were still enough opportunities in my day to work hard and climb a little. Someone who is like I was but 18 today is headed for a life of unemployment, homelessness, opium, childlessness, etc.

I completely agree on the polls being unreliable. I don't know what to do about it because these are interesting issues and questions and worth exploring.
Click to expand...

You’re lucky in being part of the Millennials that got into the job market (I think?) before the recession basically grabbed us and threw us onto the ground without mercy. After that (2007) I can only imagine it increasingly got worse for everyone to follow. That’s the year that changed everything.

I graduated in 2010 when the recession was said to be around WWII levels.
 
Cap2024 said:
You’re lucky in being part of the Millennials that got into the job market (I think?) before the recession basically grabbed us and threw us onto the ground without mercy. After that (2007) I can only imagine it increasingly got worse for everyone to follow. That’s the year that changed everything.

I graduated in 2010 when the recession was said to be around WWII levels.
Click to expand...
I was lucky to be in graduate school at the time, an thus relatively insulated. I'm also fortunate to have bought a home prior to mortgage costs nearly tripling around 2022. I think that to a good approximation, those who are not homeowners today, will probably never be homeowners.

I spoke to a boomer relative around Easter. He bought his first home in the 1980s ... For $4500. It's worth about 100x more today. There's an 11% inflation rate right there, annualized over 40 years.

And as bad as it is for Gen Z, it's going to be even worse for Gen Alpha.

They won't even be able to work at McDonald's or drive for Uber, that will all be automated.

I think that for the sociopaths in Washington, their solution will be a draft and to send a lot of young people to die in a lot of wars.
 
Teelie said:
I think you mean, "these people just don't care..."
Click to expand...
Putting aside any other issues.....y'know....minor things like women's health.....it's just stupid from a political perspective. They just moved the needle in an exceedingly important state like AZ and seem determined to do the same in others. :shrug:
 
I know, Arizona is already a purple state and this might be enough to turn it a darker shade of blue. Same with Florida possibly going blue, or at least more purple.
 
Anti-choice misogynistic creeper ideology is historically a vote getter for Republicans. There were many reasons for this, among them that religious people were more likely to show up to vote, and that giving a carrot to social conservatives facilitated having them embrace a "free market" ideology, when in fact the small town south, etc should more naturally favour economic intervention. The union between social conservatives, white supremacists, military neoconservatism, and big business was the Republican coalition between Nixon and Romney (inclusive), and it did very well at the polls: It won elections in 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000 (stolen), and 2004.

For a lot of reasons, this coalition is defunct as evidenced by Nikki Haley being the best candidate they could come up with it. Part of that is that military neoconservatism and big business worship is now as embraced by the Democratic party (sometimes more embraced) than the Republican party. Another part is that White supremacy is quantitatively defunct due to evolving demographics. Finally, though there remain many social conservatives, they are no longer as good a fit for the rest of the coalition. They are less trusting of big business, for example with vaccine hesitancy, and less enthusiastic of military neoconservatism. A generation ago, Republicans supported the Iraq war, that would not happen today.

Hence the current disorganized state of the GOP.
 
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