The Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[Webhead2006]

i am sure/hope all the comic book movies next yr will do well. Domestically i hope they all make like 300-500mill total run, and internationally get at least additional 150-250mill.

 

[dark_b]

GL I think will do the most out of the three.

Thor has potential. But everything must be ****ing spot on and turn anyone off. The costumes, the plot, just the look of it all. That trailer needs to be ****ign amazing to get people to see it. It will be the first summer movie of next year. It could have a so so to solid openign weekend. if it's good, WOM will bump it up more. But I'm not expecting a smash hit. But I think it has potential.

Cap might have more of the edge over Thor. Everyone knows him and Evans is a great lead. If everything impresses then it should do well enough.

But all in all I think GL will come out on top. I think it could be next year's IM or ST.

based on the casting and material it looks like a combination of ST and IM together.

i hope it is a IM and ST type movie.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

With First Class now being released two weeks ahead, there may be comic overload. None of these are small Hellboy type flicks.

 

[Octoberist]

i don't think it'll absolutely affect Green Lantern's BO, though it will obviously affect Hangover 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2.

It really depends because this will be the first X-Men movie without Wolverine, and it sounds like it's a smaller picture. Who knows, despite the short schedule, this could be the best X-Men flicks since X2.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Fox is a disgrace... anyone honestly believe FC will get done in a year? I still think it will get pushed back, but adding onto 2011 is just ******ed. Hope it flops hard.

 

[3atman]

I really don't think Blackest Night will have added that many more fans. People who buy comic books are already comic book fans. If I were to create a bracket of "fandom" it'd be like "casual fan" these are the people that will watch a comic movie if it looks good "casual comic fan" these are the people that will watch a comic movie if it's a character that interests them, "comic fan" the people who will watch just about any comic film unless they hear it blows and probably own 1 or 2 comics, and finally, the "hardcore fanatic comic book fan" which is someone who buys the best comic books that are coming out and watches every comic movie, gets every comic video game.

Blackest Night may have created more interest and excitement amongst fans who were already going, but considering comics sell what? 200,000 issues when really really good and thinking that probably 90% of those were already either hardcore fans or Green Lantern fans, you're not talking about much of an increase.

Promoting the hell out of it, the excellent casting of Ryan Reynolds, and infiltrating every communication medium with Green Lantern will make the movie draw better.

Thor will bar far be the worst off unless it gets a cult following, which it could if they make it overly badass like 300.

 

[Chewy]

Thor will bar far be the worst off unless it gets a cult following, which it could if they make it overly badass like 300.

Why? Green Lantern and Thor are equally out there; Thor isn't an inherently harder sell than Green Lantern, and vice-versa.

Thor is, imo, by far the best off, due to its excellent release date and tremendous talent behind and in front of the camera. Green Lantern, Captain America, and the sure-to-be-dreadful First Class all have a ton of competition from other summer movies, even on their opening weekends.

 

[Webhead2006]

yea for all we know first class could not finished on time and could be dumped to later in the year or soemthing. But yea already on top of the other films for next summer its going to be one dam interesting film season next yr.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Fox is a disgrace... anyone honestly believe FC will get done in a year? I still think it will get pushed back, but adding onto 2011 is just ******ed. Hope it flops hard.

That's what Haterade taste like.

You're right about Fox, but Vaughn and Singer are on the up and up. If they want to attempt to bring our favorite characters to life, then we should always be for them. Their hearts are in the right place.

 

[FaT_tONle]

If they delay it I will have some faith. Although I am 99% short they will push it to December so I wouldn't panic yet. In it's slot now, it's going to flop no matter what I think. Panda 2, Hangover, and POTC? No chance of success.

 

[Chewy]

It's not going to get delayed. Look at next year's summer schedule, it's the only movie Fox has got lined up. Fox is desperate for product and that's what First Class is

 

[Jake Cassidy]

I think that GL and Thor will be close. The 1 advantage I can see that GL has, though, is a more well known lead actor. It doesn't happen all the time, but sometimes it helps.

I believe it'll be GL, than Thor, than Cap. That being said I have no doubt that they'll all be successful.

Chewy, I agree that Thor has a great cast and director, but so does GL imo. Although, neither 1 of them is on the level of Batman Begins. Bale, Caine, Freeman, Neeson and OLDMAN in the same movie is going to be hard to top.

 

[Octoberist]

Thor's advantage is that it's the first movie of the Summer next year. But I still sticking to the notion that most causal film goers prefer sci fi over fantasy. Not to say that fantasy doesn't make money but Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter are more recent while Sci-Fi has Star Wars.

Or course, it's not so much about the opening weekend for each movie but the 'legs'.

My prediction is just like Jake's: Green Lantern, Thor, then Captain America

 

[Jake Cassidy]

^ I agree. Green Lantern would have a much wider appeal than the others, imo.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

If they delay it I will have some faith. Although I am 99% short they will push it to December so I wouldn't panic yet. In it's slot now, it's going to flop no matter what I think. Panda 2, Hangover, and POTC? No chance of success.

I don't think FC is going to have the same expectations GL is. If they budget it correctly, X-Men can pull down 200million and be okay while GL is going to have to go way over 200 to be successful.

 

[Chewy]

Chewy, I agree that Thor has a great cast and director, but so does GL imo. Although, neither 1 of them is on the level of Batman Begins. Bale, Caine, Freeman, Neeson and OLDMAN in the same movie is going to be hard to top.

I agree that GL does too (Campbell, Reynolds, Strong, Sarsgaard, Robbins...), I just meant that I believe the combo of Thor's talent and release date put it at somewhat of an advantage.

And I don't know, man. Skarsgård, Hopkins, Elba, Stevenson, Portman, Russo, Feore, and Tadanobu freaking Asano making his English-language debut. Its definitely up there with Begins' cast.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Wasn't like Bale was a house hold name for Wayne. Hemsworth could be the next big thing. If it's well reviewed I could easily see Thor taking in 250 domestic. FC and GL are in trouble because they are in the middle of what is the most stacked summer to date. I think WB would be wise if they bumped GL to the winter season like they originally planned. Move Sherlock Holmes 2 to March or some ****. Just realized Fox has another Chipmunks movie due out in Dec. 2011, so maybe they won't be as hard pressed to move.

 

[Octoberist]

why move Green Lantern? and don't tell me that 'June's a dead month' which is not a proven theory.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Taking on that current June slate is lunacy if X-Men stays put. TIH was crippled not only by its former and latter counterparts, but Panda ate a huge chunk out of it. Couple that with Wall-E, Wanted, and another lack luster Shamylan movie that still made a dent, and none of those films are anywhere near what GL is facing. You got 4-5 franchises in there within a month. At least Thor can open big and recoup most of its money. GL won't have that luxury.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Pirates might be good. The last one made money so maybe people are still looking forward to it.

I'd challenge Thor on the following week. Thor isn't a given if you can beat it in hype.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

I agree that GL does too (Campbell, Reynolds, Strong, Sarsgaard, Robbins...), I just meant that I believe the combo of Thor's talent and release date put it at somewhat of an advantage.

And I don't know, man. Skarsgård, Hopkins, Elba, Stevenson, Portman, Russo, Feore, and Tadanobu freaking Asano making his English-language debut. Its definitely up there with Begins' cast.

GARY OLDMAN!!!

Do I really need to say anymore?

t:

 

[Webhead2006]

yea i could see first class getting delayed if filming doesnt finish on time and all that. as for the rest of the films coming for 2011 i hope they all do well.

 

[Chewy]

GARY OLDMAN!!!

Do I really need to say anymore?

t:

Tadanobu Asano is the Japanese Gary Oldman

Hopefully post-Thor, he'll finally start doing some American movies. Imagine a movie starring Gary Oldman AND Tadanobu Asano

 

[Jake Cassidy]

Gary Oldman is one of a kind.

I've never seen Asano in anything. I refuse to watch movies with subtitles. If I wanted to read I wouldn't be watching ****in' movies. t:

I don't know know much about the 'Thor' characters so I can't judge whether the actors will be good in the roles or not. Seeing the talent, though, they probably will.

As for GL characters, Sarsgaard as Hammond and Strong as Sinestro are perfect, imo.

 

[Octoberist]

you better be kidding because if you haven't seen any of Akira Kurosawa's films, then shame on you! I don't care if it's distracting or not, it'll freakin' amaze you. It changed my take on foreign films when I was in college.